GLOBAL MEGATREND 

6 USING TRENDS TO QUESTION ASSUMPTIONS

LIMITATIONS OF THE LITERATURE

This ‘scan of scans’ has identified where the reviewed literature agrees on the trends that will be shape the future of every person on the planet. It is not an in-depth discussion of each trend and sub-trend (Figure 38) – only a review of how the literature refers to the key dynamics. It is clear that gaps exist in the literature, for example around gender-related trends and civic freedoms. We do not agree with several tendencies that emerged from our reading, for example:

• The focus on the migration crisis as a European one, when 85% of refugees live in LICs and MICs.

• The technological optimism about solving environmental crises.

• The uncritical assumption that dealing with a youth bulge just requires jobs, without considering what constitutes decent work.

These gaps and biases are in and of themselves important to note – they highlight those problems that remain invisible and where misunderstandings prevail.

 

HOW TO USE TRENDS ANALYSIS

No amount of discussion or data can give certainty about the extent or consequences of the megatrends in different parts of the world or for specific groups of people. Inherent in trends analysis is uncertainty – of extent, speed and consequences. But forecasting uses trends to make estimates of the future based on past and current data. It gives the benefit of thinking forwards, grounded in realism about what is emerging.

What might these megatrends mean for organizations working to reduce poverty and the inequalities that cause and perpetuate it, even if the precise rates or impacts are unknown? The question must be asked about whether the decisions taken today on thematic or geographic priorities sufficiently recognize the inevitability of these trends.

Understanding trends and possible scenarios allows for critical ‘what if’ thinking. For example:what if everyone was digitally connected by 2030? What might this mean not only for how we work – ‘digital first’ – but for power concentrations that could lead to further data inequalities? On the other hand, what if there is a persistent digital divide geographically or demographically? These two entirely different scenarios, both possible, need to be explored. How will regions with a youth bulge be fed, and are processes underway to ensure the knowledge base for the decent jobs these young people will soon need? Such questions must be imagined.

Any initiative that seeks justice and equality is based on assumptions about geographical or thematic priorities, urgency, impacts on specific groups, the possible contribution of different organizations, and how change might happen. Whether explicit or implicit, we act based on how we understand the world. Thinking through the possible consequences of emerging trends

Global Megatrends: Mapping the Forces that Affect Us All55 helps revisit such assumptions.

Trends analysis invites thinking about operational assumptions, such as the external context in which the work takes place.

For example: if the goal is achieving food security in a location, what are the implications of Hyperconnectivity or Crumbling Social Cohesion or Demographic Shifts on possible pathways? What does support to civic space look like in the context of polarization, given the pros and cons of Technological Innovation?

 

Six steps to be fit for the future

An organization can put trends analysis to work through six tasks:

1. Identify trends not on the radar. Which of the trends in this report are on the organizational radar – explicitly – in terms of their possible implications for thematic, geographic and operational choices? Which ones are being ignored and should be taken more seriously? Given that the megatrends discussed here come with in-built biases, what other trends are key where organizations such as Oxfam are active?

2. Focus on (virtual) geographies that matter. How might these megatrends look in each region and country, mindful that such data may not be available on all trends? Might virtual communities and cities become more powerful ‘change hubs’ than geographic communities, nation states?

3. Think through impacts on different groups of people. How might these megatrends – individually and together – affect poor/marginalized populations, especially women and girls? Operationally, if an organization is opting for a ‘digital first’ way of influencing or programming, which groups are inadvertently being privileged or excluded? If the assumption is that CSOs are critical for success, how will this play out in the many contexts where social cohesion is being eroded? For whom are impacts happening now, in the near future or later? And what does this mean for how to support those struggling under conditions of poverty or social marginalization?

4. Figure out opportunities and challenges using a systems perspective. While each megatrend could potentially help or hinder, it is in the interaction of trends that the real effects will be felt. What do we assume about each megatrend and how it will affect others? What new options can emerge within these interactions to tackle poverty and inequality? For example, is there sufficient recognition of the potential of the Youth Bulge when we think of inequality-reducing advocacy? Is enough known about how automation might give new chances for digital economy employment opportunities in refugee camps? How can the urgency to reduce water use by food systems trigger changes in agricultural production that better meet global nutritional, rather than only calorie, needs?How we think about the world – as single trends or as a system of interactions – will affect how we act. A systems perspective has led to new concepts like ‘resilience’ that recognise interacting forces. Looking at trends as separate phenomena would ignore the known unknowns, of, say, a deadly virus and its potential impact on economies and demography. It would also ignore the complex interactions that lead to ‘unknown unknowns’. Such unknowns can be accommodated by organizations through constant horizon scanning, seeking surprise, and undertaking the kind of ‘what if’ thought experiments that this paper hopes to encourage.

5. Decide which trends to take on and what roles to play. While all these trends will affect any work, an organization needs to decide what role they can and want to play. What kind of agent of change and what kind of change does it want to support in relation to each megatrend? Such discussions can help clarify organizational identity and mission amid global changes. Each trend is inherently political, affected by myriad power relations, thus not favouring those unable to influence decisions. If an organization is clear how it will respond to or incorporate each trend into its work, then clarity is needed about scales of response. A minimalist approach on, for example, rural–urban migration would mean not

56 Global Megatrends: Mapping the Forces that Affect Us All

investing time deciding whether an organization is ‘for’ or ‘against’ this inevitable trend, but rather understanding what is going on and focusing on reducing negative effects on those groups it cares about most. A maximalist approach might focus on generating livelihood opportunities to reduce the need for employment and service-driven migration.

6. Reimagine partnerships, roles and possibilities. With the emergence of new polarities, economic drivers and geographies of action, are new partnerships spotted and fostered to shape the role of NGOs? Is an organization well placed to be part of an intervention that aligns with its identity, mission and strengths? Is there an organizational ability to fund meaningful work? What do trends suggest for other key operational assumptions, such as the ability to raise funds? For example, diminishing tax revenues and a slowing economy in the global North might result in a reduction of commitment in humanitarian assistance, raising the question of scale and quality of engagement from emerging economies.